Considering the Process of Social Agreement on Weather Control
and Evaluating Weather Control Technology from an ELSI Perspective
This study examines case studies of citizen participatory science and technology assessments, as well as Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI) initiatives, related to overseas projects like carbon dioxide capture and storage and solar geoengineering. We examine the process of fostering social consensus in the context of weather control. We also assess the impact of weather control technologies on existing natural, ethical, and societal perspectives from an ELSI perspective.
Item 9-1Promoting RRI for weather control
Principal investigator: Koji Tachibana
Outline
We assess the impact of weather control technologies on existing natural, ethical, and societal perspectives from an ELSI perspective. We examine case studies of citizen participatory science and technology assessments, as well as Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI) initiatives, related to overseas projects like carbon dioxide capture and storage and solar geoengineering. We examine the process of fostering social consensus in the context of weather control.
Method
(Background)
When examining and evaluating the impact of weather control technology on existing views of nature, ethics, and society from an ELSI (Ethical, Legal and Social Issues) perspective, it is essential to understand the values that people have formed regarding these concepts. For example, in the entry on “Earth” in the “Encyclopedia of Science, Technology and Ethics” (5 volumes, Maruzen Publishing, 2012), it is stated that Earth is not just natural object but holds certain values for humans. Therefore, when examining the ethics of engineering interventions in Earth’s environment, it is essential to understand how humans have perceived the Earth throughout history. In addition, the text introduces perspectives from Buddhism and Native American philosophies, suggesting that key question is whether these philosophical viewpoints can be integrated with Earth System Science and Geosystem Engineering (p1448). In this study, we provide predictions on the impacts of weather control technology on existing nature, ethics, and society, while taking into account the understanding within the field of science and technology ethics. This will help to promote RRI in the context of weather control.
(Specific method)
We investigate the research trends in the ethics of geoengineering (ELSI of geoengineering) within the field of environmental ethics, both domestically and internationally. Based on this investigation, we examine several case studies of actual technology assessments. From the findings, we identify key ELSI items and propose a process for fostering social consensus on weather control. Additionally, we develop an action list for necessary environmental risk assessments and social dialogues. Moreover, these activities will be accomplished not only through a review of relevant literature and case studied but also through field researches involving interviews with participants, researchers and government officials. We will integrate both and clarify the issues that need to be considered for the social implementation of weather control technology. By integrating both approaches, we aim to clarify the key considerations that should be taken into account when socially implementing weather control technology.
Importance
In the aforementioned “Encyclopedia of Science, Technology and Ethics,” two out of the four pages dedicated to understanding the Earth in Western thought focus on the insights from Plato’s “Timaeus” and “Phaedo”, as well as Aristotle’s various writings, highlighting their influence on the understanding of the Earth. Additionally, in the new high school curriculum for “Ethics” that began in 2022, all five publishers of the certified textbooks reference thinkers such as Tetsuro Watsuji and discuss the formation of Japanese values from the perspective of Japan’s natural environment. This theme emphasizes the awareness of being Japanese in the context of the international community. In 2021, a planned solar geoengineering experiment in the stratosphere, coordinated by a research group from Harvard University in collaboration with the Swedish Space Agency was canceled due to opposition from environmental organizations and differing perspectives on atmospheric interventions from various stakeholders. In a report on ELSI published by NASA in September 2023, the agency acknowledged the criticisms from groups such as Native Americans regarding their “space burials” and differing perspectives on the Moon and outer space. The report emphasized the need for RRI that considers these diverse viewpoints on natural environments like the atmosphere and space. It also highlighted the importance of integrating researchers from the humanities and social sciences into NASA’s RRI efforts moving forward.
In this way, for the development and research that intervenes in natural environment to be appropriately promoted, it is necessary to understand and consider the values and histories that the affected societies and their people have traditionally cultivated. It is important to note that these values are often formed unconsciously and without awareness, even among people living in the present. Building RRI for the promotion of weather control needs to clarify these underlying values and proactively prevent conflicts that may arise during the social implementation of the technology in advance. To achieve this, it is useful to conduct citizen participatory science and technology assessments alongside a literature review of the philosophies that have shaped people’s values. That is why we employ literature reviews in the field of environmental ethics and interviews. We believe that alongside providing clear explanations to stakeholders and actively soliciting their hones opinions, it is essential to identify and understand their traditional values as well as to consider these values with care.
Only with such understanding and consideration can the entities conducting research and development effectively identify overlooked risks and navigated potential conflicts with existing traditional values (views of nature, ethics and society) during implementation. In this sense, this study is not limited to specific phenomena such as “maritime heavy rainfall generation” or “linearly elongated precipitation zone” among the various weather disaster. However, new technologies for to atmospheric manipulation aimed at controlling weather, such as “maritime heavy rainfall generation” or “linearly elongated precipitation zone” can only be socially implemented in desirable ways after predicting their impacts on people’s view of nature and ethics, and achieving with traditional values. Therefore, this study is an essential part of this project. The research outcomes of Item 9-1 contribute to the overall Moonshot Goal 8, while collaborating with other ELSI teams. At the same time, it can be assumed that people’s perspectives on nature and ethics regarding weather disaster such as typhoons, localized burst, and heavy rain fall differ from one another. Therefore, we begin with a general investigation into weather control and gradually deepen our research into the perspectives on nature and ethics specifically related to heavy rainfall and linearly elongated precipitation zone.
Expected problems and solutions
A potential issue is that relevant information may not be sufficiently accessible in the fields of environmental ethics and related science technology sociology, both domestically and internationally. To solve this issue, we investigate international case studies and their backgrounds, establish contact with relevant organizations and facilities, and conduct additional interviews as needed. By gathering and analyzing sufficient information in this manner, we believe we can effectively support the promotion of RRI.
Members
Item 9-2Science Communication for Maximizing the Social Value of Weather Modification
Principal investigator: Yuko Ikkatai
Outline
This research aims to uncover public perceptions, concerns, and expectations regarding weather modification through social science methodologies. We plan to build an effective framework for science communication based on both quantitative and qualitative data.
Method
(Background)
When developing technologies with significant societal impact, like weather modification, we believe it's crucial for researchers to engage with the public from the early stages of development. This means sharing information, exchanging opinions, and fostering dialogue and discussion. We will explore effective science communication frameworks through these practical engagements.
(Specific method)
We will analyze public attitudes towards weather modification (including their perceptions, concerns, and expectations) using a multi-faceted approach. This will involve quantitative surveys (like questionnaires) and qualitative research (such as interviews during workshops). Our goal is to clearly identify any perception gaps between the public and researchers.
Importance
Continuously reflecting public perceptions, concerns, and expectations back into the technology development process is vital for promoting transparent and constructive dialogue between citizens and researchers.
Expected problems and solutions
Public perceptions can change over time. We intend to conduct regular follow-up surveys to capture these shifts.
Members
Item 9-3Alleviating Public Anxiety Toward Weather Control Through Citizen Dialogue
Principal investigator: Masako Kitazaki
Outline
When new science and technology are introduced into everyday life, people unfamiliar with the technology may develop disproportionate anxiety or unrealistic expectations. Such emotions can fuel strong opposition movements or deep-seated aversion, potentially hindering the societal implementation of the technology. To avoid this, it is essential to establish continuous communication between those proposing new technologies and the future users, creating forums where both sides can engage in concrete, mutual discussions. Concerns raised by users that require policy responses must be addressed through institutional or regulatory measures. At the same time, unfounded fears or inflated hopes stemming from a lack of understanding should be alleviated by providing accurate information.
In Japan, citizen dialogues remain relatively uncommon compared to those in Europe, and methods successful in European contexts may not apply to Japanese citizens, whose civic attitudes differ. Furthermore, weather control may unavoidably lead to some degree of adverse impact in exchange for future benefits. Therefore, new methodologies are needed to cultivate public understanding of the purpose and value of scientific and technological innovations through meaningful dialogue with the citizens.
This project aims to develop and implement methodologies and programs suited to the Japanese context by reviewing domestic and international literature on citizen dialogue, while also devising ways to measure shifts in public attitudes.
Method
(Background)
Action Research: To induce changes in public awareness, action research—rather than laboratory-based studies—is more effective in achieving this goal. Action research is a collaborative, practice-based method in which researchers and stakeholders work together to solve real-world problems.
Creating Mutual Communication Platforms (Workshops): Prior studies show that one-way communication methods, such as brochures or videos from scientists, are insufficient. Direct, interactive, two-way communication between citizens and scientists has proven more effective. Moreover, experiential formats that incorporate physical activities—such as games or role-playing—make the content more accessible and memorable for individuals without a scientific background.
(Specific method)
The first step is site selection. Multiple locations that are potentially vulnerable to severe weather events, such as typhoons or floods, will be identified. The team will visit candidate sites and engage with local governments and officials to establish relationships with communities willing to collaborate in implementing citizen workshops.
Drawing on insights from both domestic and international studies, workshop programs adapted to the Japanese context will be developed and tested through multiple pilot workshops. In parallel, we will develop methods for measuring current understanding and shifts in public awareness.
Importance
For weather control to become a practical reality, it is not enough to pursue technological development or economic sustainability. It is equally critical to establish a social foundation, which includes legal frameworks, institutional arrangements, and the transformation of public understanding and attitudes.
Expected problems and solutions
One possible challenge is the difficulty in securing local communities willing to host citizen workshops. To mitigate this, the project team will collaborate with the PM/PI and consider focusing on regions where the PI already has existing relationships and trust, thereby improving the feasibility of implementation.
Members
